{"id":561,"date":"2015-01-06T22:54:26","date_gmt":"2015-01-06T20:54:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.berndbraun.eu\/?p=561"},"modified":"2022-02-22T21:35:57","modified_gmt":"2022-02-22T19:35:57","slug":"the-decision-making-process-of-obama-concerning-isis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.berndbraun.eu\/sk\/the-decision-making-process-of-obama-concerning-isis\/","title":{"rendered":"Obamov rozhodovac\u00ed proces t\u00fdkaj\u00faci sa ISIS"},"content":{"rendered":"
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I. Prezident a jeho poradcovia
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II. Byrokratick\u00e1 premenn\u00e1
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III. Vl\u00e1dne a spolo\u010densk\u00e9 premenn\u00e9
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IV. Kognit\u00edvny pr\u00edstup
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V. Syst\u00e9mov\u00e1 premenn\u00e1
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I. Prezident a jeho poradcovia <\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Skuto\u010dn\u00fd rozhodovac\u00ed proces je v z\u00e1sade zalo\u017een\u00fd na Obamovom \u0161t\u00e1be, t. j. na \u00fazkom kruhu poradcov, ktor\u00ed si s n\u00edm vytvorili vz\u0165ahy po\u010das jeho kampane v roku 2008. V podstate je to samotn\u00fd prezident Obama, kto rozhoduje po konzult\u00e1cii s niektor\u00fdmi aspektmi v r\u00e1mci tohto vn\u00fatorn\u00e9ho kruhu poradcov. Je to hlavne Ved\u00faci person\u00e1lu <\/em>McDonough jeden z jeho spin doktori <\/strong>a Bolsterers<\/strong>), ktor\u00fd je pre prezidenta najd\u00f4veryhodnej\u0161\u00ed. Potom prich\u00e1dza S. Riceov\u00e1, poradky\u0148a pre n\u00e1rodn\u00fa bezpe\u010dnos\u0165. T\u00edto \u013eudia spolu s ostatn\u00fdmi \u010dlenmi vn\u00fatorn\u00e9ho kruhu tvoria \"v skupine<\/strong>\"Prezidentovi vern\u00ed maj\u00fa k nemu privilegovan\u00fd pr\u00edstup. Zvy\u0161ok intuit\u00edvnych poradcov tvor\u00ed \"mimo skupiny<\/strong>\"To je ozvenou typickej charakteristiky Obamovej administrat\u00edvy, ktor\u00e1 trp\u00ed vertik\u00e1lnou dyadickou v\u00e4zbou (Danserau), ke\u010f\u017ee l\u00edder rozv\u00edja r\u00f4zne vz\u0165ahy s ka\u017edou \u0161trukt\u00farou. To je ozvenou typickej charakteristiky Obamovej administrat\u00edvy, ktor\u00e1 trp\u00ed vertik\u00e1lnou diad\u00e9movou v\u00e4zbou (Danserau), ke\u010f\u017ee l\u00edder rozv\u00edja r\u00f4zne vz\u0165ahy s ka\u017edou \u0161trukt\u00farou. Okrem toho v\u00e4\u010d\u0161ina charakterist\u00edk tohto pr\u00edpadu poukazuje na to, \u017ee form\u00e1lna \u0161trukt\u00fara<\/em> upravuje hierarchick\u00e9 vz\u0165ahy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rozhodovac\u00ed proces je v skuto\u010dnosti zatvoren\u00e9 <\/strong>v podstate prezidentovi vern\u00ed, s v\u00fdsledkom nedostatok brainstorming <\/strong>mimo vn\u00fatornej skupiny. Aj ke\u010f s\u00fa na stole r\u00f4zne mo\u017enosti, nezva\u017euj\u00fa sa, a aj ke\u010f sa ciele nedosiahnu, strat\u00e9gie sa neprehodnocuj\u00fa. Obama tie\u017e nem\u00e1 vo svojom okruhu poradcov niekoho, kto by mohol zohra\u0165 \u00falohu diablov advok\u00e1t<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Socha Abrahama Lincolna pri Lincolnovom pam\u00e4tn\u00edku, Washington DC, District of Columbia<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

II. Byrokratick\u00e1 premenn\u00e1<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Rozhodovac\u00ed proces je pozna\u010den\u00fd siln\u00fdmi rozdielmi a nap\u00e4t\u00edm medzi civilnou a vojenskou sf\u00e9rou, \u010do mo\u017eno ilustrova\u0165 najm\u00e4 rozdielmi medzi ministerstvom obrany a Bielym domom. Hlavn\u00fdm d\u00f4vodom tak\u00e9hoto nap\u00e4tia je, \u017ee rozhodovac\u00ed proces je neobjekt\u00edvny v tom zmysle, \u017ee prezident ch\u00fdba d\u00f4vera <\/strong>v in\u00fdch in\u0161titucion\u00e1lnych poradcoch, ako je minister obrany alebo minister zahrani\u010dn\u00fdch vec\u00ed. V\u00fdsledkom je nedostatok konzult\u00e1ci\u00ed<\/strong>v podstate s Pentagonom. Napriek tomu, \u017ee ministerstvo obrany zdie\u013ea in\u00fd n\u00e1zor na strat\u00e9giu potrebn\u00fa na boj proti ISIS, neberie sa do \u00favahy ani po dlh\u0161om \u010dase, ktor\u00fd bol pozna\u010den\u00fd nedosiahnut\u00fdmi cie\u013emi Obamovej politiky. V d\u00f4sledku toho boli byrokratick\u00e9 rozpory, ktor\u00e9 sa zhmotnili v nefunk\u010dnosti, k\u013e\u00fa\u010dov\u00fdm prvkom br\u00e1niacim vytvoreniu jasnej dlhodobej strat\u00e9gie.

Pozit\u00edvnym faktorom je v\u0161ak skuto\u010dnos\u0165, \u017ee napriek rozdielnym n\u00e1zorom na existuj\u00facu strat\u00e9giu sa Kerry, Hagel \u010di Dempsey verejne sna\u017eili prejavi\u0165 svoju podporu Obamovej strat\u00e9gii. Naozaj sa vyskytli aj pr\u00edklady dobrej spolupr\u00e1ce, ako napr\u00edklad medzi Kerrym a Obamom v snahe vytvori\u0165 medzin\u00e1rodn\u00fa koal\u00edciu proti ISIS.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

III. Vl\u00e1dne a spolo\u010densk\u00e9 premenn\u00e9<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Str\u00e1nka verejn\u00e1 mienka <\/strong>v\u017edy zohr\u00e1vala k\u013e\u00fa\u010dov\u00fa \u00falohu pri Obamovom prezidentovan\u00ed. V tomto pr\u00edpade mali vide\u00e1 s odrezan\u00fdmi hlavami americk\u00fdch novin\u00e1rov obrovsk\u00fd vplyv na verejn\u00fa mienku v Amerike, ako ak\u00e9si \"Efekt CNN<\/strong>\"nasledovala. To zohralo v\u00fdznamn\u00fa \u00falohu pri tvorbe strat\u00e9gie, ktor\u00e1 sa aj v \u010fal\u0161\u00edch \u00faprav\u00e1ch bude v\u017edy riadi\u0165 prieskumami verejnej mienky, ako ukazuje odmietanie vyslania pozemn\u00fdch jednotiek (percento \u013eud\u00ed, ktor\u00ed si \u017eelaj\u00fa leteck\u00e9 \u00fatoky, bolo v skuto\u010dnosti rovnak\u00e9 ako percento t\u00fdch, ktor\u00ed s\u00fa proti vyslaniu pozemn\u00fdch jednotiek). To d\u00e1va kredit pluralistick\u00fd model<\/strong>.

Kongres, ktor\u00fd s\u00e1m o sebe nie je d\u00f4le\u017eit\u00fdm faktorom, Obama sk\u00f4r vyu\u017e\u00edva na svoje vlastn\u00e9 politick\u00e9 hry. \u017eiada o jeho s\u00fahlas, ke\u010f vlastne nechce zasiahnu\u0165 (vie, \u017ee ho nedostane), a odmieta ho, ke\u010f chce kona\u0165, pod z\u00e1mienkou AUMF <\/em>alebo Z\u00e1kon o vojnov\u00fdch pr\u00e1vomociach<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Dol\u00e1rov\u00e1 bankovka s Georgeom Washingtonom na mape S\u00fdrie<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

IV. Kognit\u00edvny pr\u00edstup<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Priamo do Rystadt's nespr\u00e1vne vn\u00edmanie <\/strong>te\u00f3ria, Obamov postoj op\u00e4\u0165 dokazuje, \u017ee prezident m\u00e1 nebezpe\u010dn\u00fa tendenciu skres\u013eova\u0165 realitu, aby ju prisp\u00f4sobil svojej predispoz\u00edcii vn\u00edmania<\/em>, skreslenie <\/strong>a t\u00fdm aj cel\u00fd rozhodovac\u00ed proces. V m\u00e9di\u00e1ch toti\u017e najprv ozna\u010dil ISIS za t\u00edm JV (Junior Varsity team), podcenil hrozbu a pokra\u010doval v presadzovan\u00ed svojej agendy, aby comfort <\/strong>vlastn\u00fa v\u00edziu sveta, prostredn\u00edctvom ktorej \"vlna vojny ustupuje<\/em>\". Chr\u00e1ni\u0165 jeho z\u00e1kladn\u00e9 presved\u010denia<\/strong>bol proti vyslaniu pozemn\u00fdch jednotiek na bojov\u00e9 misie, pri\u010dom ignoroval rady expertov, ktor\u00ed neust\u00e1le \"techniky zni\u017eovania konzistencie<\/em>\"prostredn\u00edctvom procesu selekt\u00edvna interpret\u00e1cia<\/strong> \u010do mu umo\u017enilo zosta\u0165 v Lambrovom kruh fant\u00e1zie<\/strong> kde jeho zbo\u017en\u00e9 \u017eelanie<\/strong> sa zd\u00e1 by\u0165 tak\u00e1 skuto\u010dn\u00e1.

Okrem toho, s Vysok\u00e1 kognit\u00edvna zlo\u017eitos\u0165<\/strong>dokazuje, \u017ee Herman m\u00e1 pravdu, preto\u017ee dan\u00fd pr\u00edpad je uk\u00e1\u017ekou jeho \u0165a\u017ekost\u00ed rozhodn\u00fa\u0165 sa s\u00e1m a naliehavo, pri\u010dom nikdy nez\u00edska dostatok inform\u00e1ci\u00ed, a d\u00e1va mu za pravdu aj ocenenie Duroselleho \"Opatrn\u00fd<\/em>\"rozhodovac\u00ed org\u00e1n.

Idiosynkratick\u00e1 anal\u00fdza takejto situ\u00e1cie zd\u00f4raz\u0148uje najm\u00e4 jeho ego<\/strong>ktor\u00e1 hr\u00e1 d\u00f4le\u017eit\u00fa \u00falohu, ke\u010f je rozhoduj\u00faci \u010dinite\u013e tak ve\u013emi odtrhnut\u00fd od reality, a to silne nazna\u010duje, \u017ee prieskumy verejnej mienky, ktor\u00e9 uv\u00e1dzaj\u00fa regres jeho popularity, mohli by\u0165 pozoruhodn\u00fdmi premenn\u00fdmi do sp\u00f4sobu, ak\u00fdm \"spracovan\u00e9<\/em>\"kr\u00edza. M\u00f4\u017eeme si tie\u017e v\u0161imn\u00fa\u0165, \u017ee stres<\/strong>-tu by sa mohlo pouk\u00e1za\u0165 na reakcie s\u00favisiace s touto problematikou. Za\u010d\u00edname s odmietnutie<\/strong>s\u0165ahovanie do agresivita <\/strong>(the Horsesh*t<\/em> moment priniesol na svetlo zrejm\u00e9 \u010fal\u0161ie siln\u00e9 nedostatok emocion\u00e1lnej inteligencie<\/strong>), aby ste sa kone\u010dne dostali k rozhodovaciemu procesu paral\u00fdza <\/strong>samo o sebe uzn\u00e1va jeho neschopnos\u0165 rozhodova\u0165. V tejto optike by sme mohli tie\u017e tvrdi\u0165, \u017ee pod\u013ea Hermanovej te\u00f3rie o hodnotenie a posudzovanie ved\u00facich pracovn\u00edkov<\/strong>mu\u017e p\u00f4sob\u00ed sebavedome (pou\u017e\u00edva slov\u00e1 ako \"I<\/em>\", \"ja<\/em>\", \"ako vrchn\u00fd velite\u013e...<\/em>\", \"moja priorita<\/em>\"sa sna\u017e\u00ed ), ke\u010f oznamuje priazniv\u00e9 a pozit\u00edvne opatrenia, zatia\u013e \u010do pri negat\u00edvnom ozn\u00e1men\u00ed alebo ke\u010f m\u00e1 v \u00famysle zv\u00fd\u0161i\u0165 identita skupiny<\/strong>hr\u00e1 kartu t\u00edmov\u00e9ho hr\u00e1\u010da (\"nem\u00e1me strat\u00e9giu<\/em>\", \"nenech\u00e1me sa zatiahnu\u0165 do \u010fal\u0161ej vojny<\/em>\").

Tak\u00fdto postoj je v\u0161ak potrebn\u00e9 pochopi\u0165 o\u010dami samotn\u00e9ho Obamu<\/strong>. Jeho r\u00e9torika vo\u010di tejto kr\u00edze ho ako obhajcu budovania n\u00e1roda n\u00fati \u010deli\u0165 Dilema o masle a zbrani<\/strong> ke\u010f\u017ee jeho kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9 z\u00e1ujmy s\u00fa v rozpore s dlhodob\u00fdmi amb\u00edciami. V skuto\u010dnosti je \"mu\u017e, ktor\u00fd ukon\u010d\u00ed vojnu<\/em>\"a m\u00e1 v \u00famysle tak aj zosta\u0165. Za argumentom o \u00fanave verejnosti z vojny sa skr\u00fdva jeho vlastn\u00e1 nechu\u0165 projektova\u0165 moc USA. S\u00favis\u00ed to s jeho obses\u00edvnou snahou odl\u00ed\u0161i\u0165 sa od svojho predchodcu G. W. Busha, ktor\u00fd sa r\u00e1d pova\u017eoval za \"rozhoduj\u00faci faktor<\/em>\"aby nakoniec neprijal \u017eiadne rozhodnutie. A aj ke\u010f urobil jednoduch\u00e9 anal\u00f3gie<\/strong> s Jemenom a Afganistanom po\u010das rozhodovacieho procesu, to m\u00f4\u017ee ako celok vyzera\u0165 sk\u00f4r ako cel\u00e1 obr\u00e1ten\u00fd anal\u00f3gia z Bushovho modelu, antagonizmom, ku ktor\u00e9mu, nap\u00edsal svoju vlastn\u00fa defin\u00edciu identity.

Obamovo rozhodovanie je \u010dasto reakciou na udalosti v pr\u00edpade ISIS. Ur\u010dit\u00fd nedostatok rozhodnosti<\/strong> m\u00e1 tie\u017e za n\u00e1sledok nejasnos\u0165<\/strong> na strategick\u00e9 ciele. Tvrdos\u0165 v r\u00e9torike sa \u010dasto nezhoduje s konkr\u00e9tnymi \u010dinmi a stanoven\u00e9 ciele s\u00fa nere\u00e1lne <\/strong>so zavedenou strat\u00e9giou. Centralizuje rozhodovanie v r\u00e1mci ve\u013emi malej skupiny poradcov a \u010dasto osobne zapojen\u00fd<\/strong>. Jeho \u0161t\u00fdl sa vyzna\u010duje aj snahou kontrolova\u0165 a riadi\u0165 v\u0161etky detaily, \u010do mo\u017eno ilustrova\u0165 na jeho pr\u00edstup mikromana\u017ementu<\/strong>. Je nie je vn\u00edmav\u00fd<\/strong> na n\u00e1zory ostatn\u00fdch \u010das\u0165 niektor\u00fdch lojalistov. Nakoniec, prezident Obama m\u00e1 ucelen\u00fd syst\u00e9m myslenia <\/strong>dominuje z\u00e1sada nezapojenia americk\u00fdch pozemn\u00fdch jednotiek do bojov\u00fdch misi\u00ed, \u010do m\u00e1 za n\u00e1sledok ur\u010dit\u00fd druh nepru\u017enos\u0165<\/strong>. Mo\u017eno ho op\u00edsa\u0165 aj ako oportunistick\u00e9 <\/strong>ke\u010f\u017ee vyu\u017e\u00edva pr\u00e1vne zd\u00f4vodnenie vojensk\u00fdch akci\u00ed (na z\u00e1klade s\u00fahlasu alebo nes\u00fahlasu Kongresu) pod\u013ea vlastnej politickej agendy.

Pod\u013ea Barberovej typol\u00f3gie mo\u017eno Obamu v pr\u00edpade boja proti ISIS op\u00edsa\u0165 ako negat\u00edvne akt\u00edvny<\/strong> alebo negat\u00edvne pas\u00edvne<\/strong> Predseda. Negat\u00edvne <\/strong>kv\u00f4li jeho nechuti k povinnosti vysporiada\u0165 sa s ISIS, ktor\u00e1 ho n\u00fati \u00eds\u0165 proti jeho v\u00edzii \"Prezident ukon\u010duje vojny<\/em>\". Akt\u00edvne <\/strong>v\u010faka jeho v\u00f4li zvl\u00e1dnu\u0165 v\u0161etky detaily, dokonca aj tie, ktor\u00e9 sa t\u00fdkaj\u00fa operat\u00edvnej povahy konfliktu a pas\u00edvne <\/strong>kv\u00f4li jeho sk\u00f4r reak\u010dn\u00e9mu pr\u00edstupu k nebezpe\u010denstv\u00e1m, ktor\u00e9 predstavuje ISIS, namiesto toho, aby prijal akt\u00edvne opatrenia na rie\u0161enie tejto hrozby.
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Capitol Hill<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

V. Syst\u00e9mov\u00e1 premenn\u00e1<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Kontext kr\u00edzy ohrozuje nielen USA, ale aj ich poves\u0165 a prest\u00ed\u017e ako \"glob\u00e1lna moc<\/em>\". Vzostup ISIS tie\u017e predstavuje e\u0161te v\u00e4\u010d\u0161iu hrozbu pre spojencov v regi\u00f3ne, ktor\u00fdm musia USA zabezpe\u010di\u0165 d\u00f4veryhodn\u00fa podporu.

Napriek tomu, \u017ee toto vydanie je nap\u00edsan\u00e9 v kontexte glob\u00e1lneho \"vojna proti terorizmu<\/em>\", nesmieme v\u0161ak zab\u00fada\u0165, \u017ee t\u00e1to priorita zost\u00e1va jednou z \u010fal\u0161\u00edch v zlo\u017eitom medzin\u00e1rodnom kontexte, v ktorom USA p\u00f4sobia a rie\u0161ia r\u00f4zne d\u00f4le\u017eit\u00e9 z\u00e1le\u017eitosti, ako je Ukrajina alebo politika USA zameran\u00e1 na \u00c1ziu.

Napokon, Obamova v\u00f4\u013ea vytvori\u0165 medzin\u00e1rodn\u00fa koal\u00edciu na boj proti ISIS vych\u00e1dza z toho, \u017ee pre Obamu je d\u00f4le\u017eit\u00e1 predov\u0161etk\u00fdm budovanie \u0161t\u00e1tu<\/strong> doma. Preto, rozdelenie z\u00e1\u0165a\u017ee<\/strong> je nevyhnutn\u00fdm prvkom Obamovej strat\u00e9gie. Okrem toho mus\u00edme poznamena\u0165, \u017ee podpora arabsk\u00fdch \u0161t\u00e1tov a uprednost\u0148ovanie domorod\u00fdch bojovn\u00edkov ho utvrdzuje v presved\u010den\u00ed, \u017ee \"nem\u00f4\u017eeme urobi\u0165 za Ira\u010danov to, \u010do musia urobi\u0165 oni sami, ani nem\u00f4\u017eeme nahradi\u0165 arabsk\u00fdch partnerov pri zabezpe\u010dovan\u00ed ich regi\u00f3nu<\/em>\".
<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I. The President and his advisors II. The bureaucratic variable III. The governmental and societal variables IV. The cognitive approach V. The systemic variable I. The President and his advisors The real decision-making process is fundamentally based on the President\u00b4s Obama staff, i.e. a small inner circle of advisors who forged their relationships with him […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":564,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"type-darticle":[21],"class_list":["post-561","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics","type-darticle-analyse"],"yoast_head":"\nBernd Braun - Le processus d\u00e9cisionnel d'Obama concernant ISIS<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.berndbraun.eu\/sk\/the-decision-making-process-of-obama-concerning-isis\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sk_SK\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Le processus d\u00e9cisionnel d'Obama concernant ISIS\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"I. The President and his advisors II. The bureaucratic variable III. The governmental and societal variables IV. The cognitive approach V. The systemic variable I. 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